SEASONEXT (Impact based SEASonal hydrological Outlooks: a fit-for-purpose framework for adaptatioN to water EXTremes) develops and tests a novel, operationally oriented framework that links seasonal climate prediction to hydrological outlooks and water-management decisions. The project’s real-world testbed is Crete, where drought and water security challenges are already pressing.
The Challenge
The Mediterranean is a climate-change hotspot, where persistent droughts and heatwaves increasingly affect river flows, water availability, agriculture, and socio-economic conditions. In Greece, climate and water information systems are often fragmented, making it difficult for stakeholders (water authorities, policy makers, and communities) to access integrated, fit-for-purpose information for proactive management during water scarcity or excess.
Our Aim
The overarching aim of SEASONEXT is to fortify water resources in Greece against climate extremes by designing and testing a proactive, scalable water and risk management framework, bridging scientific advances and on-the-ground application.
What is new in SEASONEXT
SEASONEXT combines three innovations into one practical chain from climate information to decisions:
1. Improved seasonal climate forecasts for Greece:
We exploit regional sources of predictability (e.g., Weather Regimes and teleconnections) and apply advanced bias correction and ML downscaling to produce skillful, local-scale seasonal forecasts.
2. A robust hydrological model for Crete:
We develop, calibrate, and validate an open-source hydrological model (HYPE) to translate seasonal climate information into seasonal hydrological projections, including the assessment of predictability of streamflow extremes.
3. Two decision-support products co-developed with users:
• Seasonal Outlooks Prototype Platform: a centralized web portal that provides tailored, probabilistic seasonal water-availability scenarios, interactive visualizations, and skill information.
• WRM Decision Analytic Framework: an a-posteriori multi-objective framework that explores trade-offs and Pareto-optimal solutions for water management options (e.g., dam operations, groundwater pumping, demand measures), explicitly tested with stakeholders in a selected pilot site.
How we work
SEASONEXT follows a clear “forecast-to-impact-to-decision” logic:
A core feature is that development and evaluation are stakeholder-informed, through workshops and surveys that: identify user needs and decision processes, select and characterize pilot sites (e.g., specific dams), provide feedback on management options, and test prototype tools.
Where we work: Crete as a real-world testbed
Crete provides a practical and policy-relevant environment for demonstrating seasonal hydrological outlooks and their value for operational water management and drought planning. Pilot applications will be selected in collaboration with local authorities and may focus on specific water-infrastructure units (e.g., a dam system).
Who benefits
SEASONEXT is designed to support:
• Water authorities and reservoir management bodies in Crete, translating improved forecasts into actionable insights for drought mitigation and resource planning.
• Policy makers and planners, by strengthening drought management planning with proactive, data-driven information.
• Potentially additional sectors (e.g., agriculture, energy) through improved seasonal information, where relevant.
Expected outcomes
As the project progresses, the website will host and/or reference:
• The Seasonal Outlooks Prototype Platform (public prototype)
• The WRM Decision Analytic Framework and public documentation
• Public deliverables, publications, and communication materials